The hottest Mobile has entered the inertia growth

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China Mobile has entered a period of inertia growth: the era of micro growth is coming

in the early morning of March 19, China Mobile announced its 2011 performance last week. Compared with the main growth indicators in the five years from 2007 to 2011, net profit, new user growth rate, ARPU value, SMS business revenue and proportion and other indicators have declined. China Mobile has started a period of inertia growth

the era of micro growth of China Mobile is coming.

around March every year, when China Mobile announced its performance of the previous year, many media like to use "earn 300 million a day", "earn 320 million a day", "earn 345 million a day" to describe the net profit growth of China Mobile

although it seems that China Mobile is making great progress every day, its profit situation is not optimistic

compared with the net profit growth of China Mobile from 2007 to 2011, it decreased from 30% in 2007 to 5% in 2011. China Mobile has entered the era of micro growth

in 2007, the net profit of China Mobile increased by 31.90%, 29.60% in 2008, 2.30% in 2009, 3.90% in 2010 and 5.20% in 2011. Especially in 2009 and 2010, due to the economic crisis, 2G market saturation, 3G market has not yet formed and other reasons, the growth rate of China Mobile has been minimal

in terms of average monthly consumption (ARPU) per household, China Mobile was 90 yuan in 2006, which has fallen below 90 yuan since 2007 and has declined year by year. From 89 yuan in 2007, 83 yuan in 2008, 77 yuan in 2009, 73 yuan in 2010 to 71 yuan in 2011

some employees of China Mobile also complained on Weibo: "I saw an article titled" China Mobile made 345 million yuan a day last year ". In fact, it is meaningless to discuss this sentence. 2. The sample installation problem has been very hard for China Mobile in the past two years, and China Mobile has been robbed of a lot of high-end shares by China Unicom's 3G. Now it is entirely relying on excellent management and tenacious staff fighting spirit to obtain today's performance. In 2011, the net profit increased by 5.2% to 125.870 billion yuan. In fact, what is the significance of these figures? Now the employees are miserable! "

the SMS business fell and the financial results were inconsistent

for China Mobile, in addition to the weak growth caused by the external environment, the traditional business was also impacted by the new social media, the most obvious being the SMS and MMS business

according to the annual performance disclosed by China Mobile, the SMS revenue of China Mobile was 41.935 billion yuan in 2007, 50.384 billion yuan in 2008, 53.557 billion yuan in 2009 and 52.615 billion yuan in 2010. In 2010, the SMS business of China Mobile fell for the first time. In 2011, China Mobile's SMS and MMS business revenue was 46.462 billion, a slight decline from 2010

in terms of MMS, China Mobile's MMS business revenue was 1.567 billion yuan in 2007, 2.878 billion yuan in 2008 and 3.336 billion yuan in 2009

it is strange that China Mobile did not disclose the business status of MMS in 2010

somehow, when comparing the performance in 2010, China Mobile said that its SMS and MMS business in 2010 was 46.889 billion yuan, which was lower than the 52.615 billion yuan of SMS business revenue disclosed separately in 2010. China Mobile also did not give an official explanation for the discrepancy between its disclosed performance figures

in terms of the total number of short messages, it was 502.741 billion in 2007, accounting for 11.8% of the total revenue of China Mobile, 607.129 billion in 2008, accounting for 12.2%, 681.225 billion in 2009, accounting for 11.9%, and 710.983 billion in 2010, which requires changes, accounting for 10.9%. In 2011, it was 736.1 billion, accounting for 8.8%. This is the first time that SMS business accounts for less than 10%

the reason for this is that a staff member of China Mobile said, "SMS was able to develop rapidly in that year. The important reason was that at that time, the voice tariff was high, the cost performance of SMS business was outstanding, and the substitution effect was obvious. However, with the decline of voice tariff, voice business and im business have instead replaced SMS. It is basically impossible to expect the SMS revenue to increase significantly, and it is fortunate to be able to maintain stability."

where is the new growth point

for China Mobile, the impact on traditional business is the general trend, and what is more fatal is that the new business growth point is not clear. In the short term, 3G and 4G services cannot become new growth points

let's talk about TD first. TD network has been put into commercial use since 2008. By the end of 2011, it has 51 million users, with a market share of more than 40%. However, due to the low utilization rate of TD network, it is still in the state of increasing revenue

Li Yue, President of China Mobile, said that the utilization rate of TD network was 9.9% in 2010 and increased to 13.8% in 2011. "The goal in 2012 is to increase this state, that is, to 15% in high elastic state. Only by improving the utilization rate can the 3G business return increase."

as the follow-up evolution of 3G, the commercial plan of TD-LTE is not clear at present

for the impact of heavy load, Xiao Wang Jianzhou bluntly said, "it will still take some time for TD-LTE to contribute to the revenue of China Mobile Group. He also said that there is no plan for the parent company to acquire TD-LTE network this year."

this also means that the market's previous desire to improve the performance of China Mobile through TD-LTE will be difficult for a while

previously, the industry predicted that the Ministry of industry and information technology would soon clarify the commercial plan of TD-LTE, and it was reported that the Ministry of industry and information technology would issue TD-LTE licenses to China Mobile. However, during the two sessions, Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, said that he would refer to the experience of TD-SCDMA trial commercial, and "would rather be a little slower in the development of TD-LTE, and make more preparations. It will take two to three years to issue licenses."

however, the scale test of TD-LTE is still advancing

last year, the Ministry of industry and information technology, China Mobile and major equipment manufacturers have jointly completed the first phase of the scale test of TD-LTE. At the performance conference, China Mobile said that this year it will start the second phase of the scale test in nine cities, and Hangzhou and Shenzhen will reach the level of trial commercial use. In Hong Kong, China Mobile will also start LTE tdd/fdd commercial services

fortunately, China Mobile sees hope in data business. China Mobile's wireless business revenue in 2011 was 44.428 billion yuan, an increase of 45% year-on-year. Among the 44.428 billion wireless revenue, the revenue from mobile data traffic was 43.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, and the revenue from WLAN was 739 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 286.9%

the revenue from WLAN has increased nearly 300 times. The "four synergy" strategy of GSM, TD-SCDMA, WLAN and TD-LTE of China Mobile gives people a glimmer of hope. Sina Technology ()

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